A fresh round of U.S. trade measures is set to hit trucking. President Donald Trump unveiled new tariffs, including a 25% levy on heavy-duty trucks built outside the United States, an abrupt change from the current 0% rate, and additional duties targeting consumer goods and pharmaceuticals.
The administration’s plan imposes a 25% duty on every heavy-duty truck imported into the U.S., effective October 1. Industry groups say the move will feed through to equipment costs over time, even if OEMs initially absorb some impact to avoid immediate sticker shock for buyers.
One big unknown is whether vehicles from Mexico and Canada—the primary sources of U.S. truck imports—will be exempt under the USMCA trade pact. Given that nearly all imported Class 8 trucks arrive from those two countries, the USMCA question is pivotal for price and supply planning.
According to American Truck Dealers, the four dominant U.S. Class 8 suppliers—Daimler Truck, Paccar, Volvo Group, and Traton—account for 99.9% of Class 8 sales, each maintaining capacity in Mexico. Since 2019, imports of medium—and heavy-duty vehicles have surged, with a sizable share of production shifting south of the border, the Economic Policy Institute notes.
Public filings indicate U.S. Class 8 production fell ~15% from 2019 to 2023, even as overall registrations stayed roughly flat, underscoring the offshoring trend. Some OEMs have hinted they could re-site output in the U.S. to blunt tariff exposure—Daimler Truck floated that possibility after the 2024 election.
The Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA) estimates about 35% of all medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in the U.S. are imported, highlighting how broad the tariff’s reach could be.
Alongside the truck levy, the White House outlined new tariffs effective October 1 on:
Those categories represent meaningful freight flows for both truckload and intermodal. Higher import costs typically cool orders and volumes, increasing downside risk for carriers already navigating a fragile recovery.
Heading into late 2024 and early 2025, ACT Research reported that spot rates and volumes were inching toward balance. That progress has wavered amid the tariff escalation. According to ACT, pre-tariff buying and soft freight have prevented meaningful tightening, and the broader economy will likely digest tariff effects for months, with container traffic poised to retreat—pressuring intermodal in particular.
In past comment filings, all four major truck makers have publicly opposed duties on finished vehicles. Following the latest announcement, Daimler Truck and Traton shares slipped roughly 3% in early overseas trading.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reiterated concerns, emphasizing that fleets face rising operating costs and muted volumes. ATA also pointed to policy levers that could soften price pressure, including potential adjustments to the federal low-NOx rule and repealing the 13% federal excise tax on heavy commercial equipment (tractors, trucks, trailers).
The bottom line is that a 25% import duty on heavy-duty trucks, plus steep consumer goods and pharma tariffs starting October 1, threatens to raise fleet equipment costs and incredible freight demand. Without offsets, the measures could stretch the industry’s recovery timeline and keep carriers operating in a higher-cost, lower-visibility environment.
